
World View & Market Commentary.
Forest first; Trees second.
Focused on Real & Knowable facts that filter through the "experts" fluff and media hyperbole. Where we've been, what the future may hold and developing a better way forward.
Highlights
Consumer price inflation turned negative for the first time in twelve months on another decline in energy costs. The consumer price index in June dipped 0.2 percent, following a 0.2 percent increase the month before. The June number matched the median estimate for a 0.2 percent decrease. Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 0.3 percent, equaling the May rate and topping the consensus forecast for a 0.2 percent increase.
Turning to major components, energy dropped 4.4 percent, following a 1.0 percent decline. Gasoline fell 6.8 percent after decreasing 2.0 percent in May. Food price inflation slowed with a 0.2 percent gain after a 0.4 percent surge the month before.
Within the core new vehicles increased 0.6 percent, used cars and trucks jumped 1.6 percent, and apparel increased 1.4 percent in June. And owners' equivalent rent is no longer as soft as in recent months, rising 0.2 percent.
Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation held steady at 3.4 percent (seasonally adjusted) in June. In contrast, the core rate firmed to 1.6 percent from 1.5 percent in May on a year-ago basis. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline number was up 3.6 percent in June while the core was up 1.6 percent.
The headline is good news but the strong core will give Fed officials pause on taking on more quantitative easing. However, the motor vehicle prices gains are likely temporarily hot.
Highlights
The best news that can be squeezed from the Empire state report is that the rate of contraction is easing. The headline index came in at minus 3.76 in July, a sub-zero reading indicating month-to-month contraction in business conditions but above minus 7.79 to indicate a slightly less severe rate of contraction compared to June. Shipments are a clear positive, showing monthly expansion at plus 2.22 vs June's minus 8.02. Employment, at plus 1.11, also expanded though at a slower rate than June's 10.20.
Other readings are more downbeat including a minus 5.45 for new orders, the second negative reading in a row, and a minus 12.22 reading for unfilled orders that suggests manufacturers in the region are aggressively working down their backlog. Inventories also contracted as did the workweek. Price data confirm overall slowing with both input and output pressures easing.
Today's report points to a second month of weakness for the Philly Fed report on Thursday as well as to trouble for the July ISM report. But these are anecdotal reports, based on small samples and using diffusion methodologies. Today's industrial production report, to be released at 9:15 a.m. ET this morning, will offer definitive data on June.
Highlights
In June, lower energy costs gave the economy a break. Producer price inflation in June turned negative with prices dropping 0.4 percent, following a relatively soft rise of 0.2 percent in May. The latest number came in lower than analysts' forecast for a 0.3 percent decline. By major components, energy fell a sizeable 2.8 percent after rising 1.5 percent in May. Gasoline dropped 4.7 percent after rising 2.7 percent the prior month. Food costs rebounded 0.6, following a 1.4 percent dip the prior month. At the core level, PPI inflation bumped up to 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent in May and topping the median forecast of 0.2 percent. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for June, the year-ago the headline PPI was up 7.0 percent while the core was up 2.4 percent.
Highlights
Retail sales edged up in June despite a price related drop in gasoline sales. Overall retail sales in June edged up 0.1 percent, following a 0.1 percent dip in May (originally down 0.2 percent). The increase in June was marginally better than the median forecast for no change. A rebound in auto sales helped lift overall sales. Motor vehicle sales made a partial 0.8 percent rebound after dropping 1.8 percent in May. Both months' sales were constrained by shortages of models dependent upon parts from Japan.
Excluding autos, sales were flat, following a 0.2 percent gain in May. Analysts expected a 0.1 percent uptick. Here, components were mixed but softened largely by weak gasoline sales. Gasoline dropped 1.3 percent, following a 0.5 percent increase. Sales excluding autos and gasoline in June posted a modest 0.2 percent rise, matching the gain in May.
Outside of autos and gasoline, sales were mixed. The biggest gains were seen in building materials & garden equipment (up 1.3 percent); clothing & accessories (up 0.7 percent); and general merchandise stores (up 0.4 percent). Also gaining were food & beverage, nonstore retailers, and miscellaneous store retailers.
The largest decliners were furniture & home furnishing (down 0.8 percent); sporting goods, hobby & book stores (down 0.7 percent); and food services & drinking places (down 0.4 percent). Also falling were electronics & appliances and health & personal care.
Retail sales on a year-ago basis in June posted at 8.1 percent, compared to 7.8 percent in May. Excluding motor vehicles, sales were up 7.9 percent on a year-on-year basis, compared to 8.0 percent in May.
Essentially, overall retail sales in June were soft, mixed and about as expected. However, today's drop in initial jobless claims may be encouraging for future sales along with supply constraints in the auto sector being resolved.
Highlights
The headline decline in jobless claims is good news though there's special factors at play that cloud the July 9 week. Initial claims fell 22,000 to an as-expected level of 405,000 but the period is a shortened one that includes the July 4 holiday (prior week revised upward to 427,000). Another factor is uncertainty over the week-to-week timing of shutdowns, including auto retooling, in the manufacturing sector, a seasonal factor that lowers claims after adjustment and always makes for uncertain readings at this time of year. One factor that is clearly inflating claims is the government shutdown in Minnesota which added 11,500, before adjustment, to the week's total. A look at the four-week average, especially important for uncertain periods, is favorable, down 3,750 to 423,250.
Continuing claims for the July 2 week rose 15,000 to 3.727 million with the four-week average up slightly to 3.719 million. Continuing claims have been steady at recovery lows for the last six weeks or so. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged for the fourth straight week at 3.0 percent.
Initial claims did come down in the latest week but whether this is the beginning of a trend is too soon to say. Until claims fall below 400,000, optimism on the jobs market will continue to be limited.

Highlights
A monthly downswing in oil prices led a sweep of declines in June import prices which fell 0.5 percent overall and, importantly, also fell excluding petroleum products, down 0.2 percent. Declines are broad through nearly all input components with output components, including capital goods and consumer goods, showing moderating pressure from already incremental rates. Yet the monthly decline didn't hold down the year-on-year increase which at 13.6 percent is the largest since August 2008, which was the month of course just before the financial meltdown.
The export side shows a mild 0.1 percent increase though here too the year-on-year rate is extremely elevated, at 9.9 percent with the non-agricultural rate at a record 7.8 percent. The monthly rate, as it is on the import side, was held down by the drop in oil prices which offset a sharp 0.7 percent rise in agricultural products.
Today's report is a reminder that lower oil prices, and with them easing pressure on the consumer tied to gas prices, is a big plus for coming economic data on June. Because of oil, both producer prices on Thursday and consumer prices on Friday are expected to show headline declines.
Highlights
July is off to a weak start for the housing sector, at least based on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association that shows a 2.6 percent decline in purchase applications for the July 8 week. Refinancing applications also declined, down 6.2 percent. The declines came despite a sizable drop in rates during the week with 30-year mortgages down 14 basis points to an average 4.55 percent. Next data on the housing sector will come Monday with the housing market index.
Highlights
The political drumbeat continues from the National Federation of Independent Business whose text for June declares: "Small-business owners are registering a vote of 'no confidence' in the federal government." It uses the word "grave" to describe small-business concern over the federal budget and asks: "Who can blame the prevalence of pessimism when administration officials are telling Congress that small businesses need to pay more in taxes to support government spending programs?"
Now their numbers. Their index slipped one tenth in June to 90.8 in what the text describes as recession territory. The weakest readings concern the outlook for the economy and the outlook for sales. Interestingly, strength appears in employment plans. Also there's evidence of pricing power with a net 10 percent of the sample raising their selling prices over the last three months. It also notes that access to credit is only a limited problem.
Highlights
The trade deficit unexpectedly worsened in May and sharply. Higher oil prices that month played a key role in the increased red ink. The May trade gap ballooned to $50.2 billion from a revised $43.6 billion in April (originally $46.7 billion). The May deficit was much larger than analysts' estimate for $42.7 billion. Exports slipped 0.5 percent after improving 1.4 percent in April. Imports jumped 2.6 percent after edging down 0.3 percent the month before.
The widening in the trade deficit was led by the petroleum gap which expanded to $30.4 billion from $26.1 billion in April. For May, the price of imported oil jumped $5.52 per barrel to $108.70-the highest level since August 2008. Also, the physical quantity of oil imports jumped 9.1 percent to 275.3 million barrels for the month after plunging 14.5 percent in April. The prior month's imports were atypically soft. The nonpetroleum goods shortfall worsened to $33.3 billion from $31.1 billion the prior month. The services surplus advanced to $14.7 billion from $14.5 billion in April.
Looking at end use categories for goods, exports fell 1.1 percent while imports jumped 2.9 percent in the latest month. The dip in exports was led by a $1.8 billion decrease in industrial supplies, with a decline also seen in consumer goods (down $0.4 billion). Foods, feeds & beverages were down fractionally. On the plus side were capital goods excluding autos (up $0.4 billion) and automotive (up $0.6 billion).
The surge in imports by end use categories was led by a $4.3 billion jump in industrial supplies (mostly crude oil) with gains also seen in capital goods excluding autos (up $1.2 billion), and automotive (up $0.6 billion). The foods, feeds & beverages component was up marginally.
On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the May figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong $2.1 ($2.6 for April), and Australia $1.2 ($1.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China $25.0 ($21.6), OPEC $11.3 ($9.6), European Union $8.8 ($7.5), Mexico $6.3 ($5.5), Germany $3.8 ($3.8), Venezuela $3.1 ($2.8), Canada $2.7 ($2.4), and Japan $2.6 ($3.6).
The trade deficit is draining funds from the U.S. economy faster than earlier believed. This will lead most economists to lower their forecast for second quarter GDP. However, oil prices have come down significantly since May and we likely will see improvement in at least the petroleum gap next month. Looking for the silver lining, the boost is capital equipment imports may be a subtraction in GDP accounting, but it suggests some optimism on the part of businesses. The dip in consumer goods imports is disappointing but not so much after a $2.1 billion jump in April. The decline in goods exports also is disappointing but follows a jump in April and combined with a still low (though not as low as some weeks ago) dollar, exports likely are still on an uptrend.

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